AAPC members at their annual conference were treated to a roundtable discussion among legendary strategists and pollsters from both sides of the aisle. Stan Greenberg and Mark Mellman sat down with Ed Goess and Charlie Black to read the tea leaves in Phoenix this past Friday. With apologies to Stan and Mark for any misquotes, here are Brad’s notes on the highlights of the session.

Mark Mellman summarized the current situation as “disaster averted” after halting the slide from the financial crisis and difficult recession.  And now that the Health care bill is law, Democrats should barnstorm with the good news about the consumer protections in the legislation.   Mark maintains this election is fundamentally about performance, not ideology.  

Troubling for Democrats is the reality that the economy trumps all other issues nearly every election.  Mark suggests that, come October, if the perception of the trajectory of the economy over the next few months is positive, (even though we are likely to be stuck with high unemployment for a much longer time than in recent recessions) then our losses in the House may be in the 20 to 25 seat range—a “normal” mid term slide.  If voters see no end to the economic doldrums, the US House is definitely in play.

Mark made an encouraging observation: The “Repeal” platform is dangerous for the GOP if Democrats are successful in explaining the benefits of the legislation for working families and small business.  Imagine a TV commercial that lists the “repeals” that the GOP plan would include “ Preexisting conditions, guarantees of coverage, portability, ….” He also noted that the GOP brand continues to suffer from their cries for bipartisanship that ring hollow when voters recount the examples of delay and intransience.

Stan Greenberg noted the irony that one plank of the current healthcare law—individual, not corporate mandates for coverage came right out of the GOP policy recommendations of just a few years back but is now a  GOP talking points against the law..

Charlie Black said the 2008 election, among Independents at least, was thought to be the ushering in of a  “Post partisan” era.  The problem now for Democrats is the recession is much tougher than first anticipated, the financial crisis continues in the form of tight credit for small business, and the era of big government has returned.     Health care legislation is “Exhibit D” in the Big Government Indictment, following TARP, auto bailout and stimulus plan.  These all energize the GOP base as we prepare for the fall. The GOP will run on the Repeal and Replace  mantra with promises of tort reform and fewer restrictions on insurance companies.

Ed Goess reflected on the hubris of the Obama team—winners of presidential campaigns of both parties assume they are smarter than their vanquished foe when a more appropriate view would be that they ran a better campaign than the losers.   Big problems for Democrats in 2010 are that a) we are likely to see a 20% drop in turnout from a presidential year; b) the GOP base is very energized; c) the Independents are angry at Dems—there is currently a 13% advantage among Independents for the GOP compared to 5% in the 1994 election after Clinton’s overreach in the first two years. 

Ed said the Democrats fundamentally misread the electorate on health care reform—the priority among voters was cost containment and not expansion of coverage.  He also maintains that Independents are traditionally motivated by dislike for the party in power more so than almost any set of issues.