AA survey Wave 3
To: Interested Parties
From: Perspective LLC and Zata|3 Consulting
Date: 2/17/2011
Re: Statewide Survey of African American Vvoters in Mississippi
We are pleased to provide you with the third in a series of periodic reports on the opinions of African American voters in Mississippi. African American voters are frequently under sampled in public opinion surveys, and their opinions are often misrepresented in public discourse. Our goal is to gain and share insights and inform public policy and opinion makers of the opinions of this important segment of our electorate. The survey instrument was jointly developed by Pamela Shaw and Brad Chism. We also underwrote the cost of the research. This survey was not conducted on behalf of any candidate or organization.
This week’s survey focused on Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour.
Survey Highlights:
- Better Days Ahead! 62% of African Americans believe that Mississippi’s best days are ahead – consistent with the optimism from the surveys in January. 20% of African Americans are unsure and 18% believe their best days are behind.
- Optimism About Personal Financial Situation. 64% of African Americans in the state expect their own personal financial situation to be better a year from now. This optimism measure shows no significant change over the last month.
- A Barbour Presidency. After seven years of life under a Haley Barbour administration, 63% of African Americans in Mississippi say the Governor is not qualified to be President of the United States. This is an increase of 4% from four weeks ago. 24% agree he is qualified but not their choice for the White House. Only 14% of African Americans in Mississippi say they might consider voting for Barbour.
- Confederate General License Plates. When asked to reflect on Governor Barbour’s refusal to denounce a proposal for a state-issued license plate that would honor Confederate General Nathan Bedford Forrest, an early leader of the Ku Klux Klan, 27% of African Americans agreed that the Governor should not have denounced the effort. 18 % said that Barbour had made a mistake, but he is not a racist. And 54% of African Americans concluded that Barbour is a racist.
The top lines of the survey are on page 3. The survey instrument and the detailed findings of this report begin on page 4. We include cross tabs by age, gender and congressional district to aid in further analysis of the data. We caution readers that opinions on nearly all these questions are likely to shift as the political year heats up in Mississippi. Additionally, the number of surveys by geographic or demographic cluster may be too small to draw sweeping conclusions.
Methodology. IVR survey technology was used to complete 500 surveys on February 16, 2011. All respondents were pre-screened as African American registered voters. The survey results were gathered from each of the four congressional districts in proportion to the African American voter concentration in the state. CD1: 18%; CD 2: 43%; CD3: 24%; CD 4: 15%. The survey has a margin of error of 4.4%.
About IVR Surveys. Independent analyses from publications such as the Wall Street Journal, National Council on Public Polls, American Association of Public Opinion Research, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com, and The Pew Research Center all show automated, recorded voice surveys have an accuracy level comparable to live interviewer surveys.
About the Survey Sponsors. Perspective, LLC, is a joint venture between Pamela Shaw and Zata|3 Consulting. Pamela Shaw is a Mississippi-based government relations consultant serving progressive clients in the mid South. Zata|3 Consulting is a Washington, DC-based advocacy firm serving Democrats and progressive causes across the United States. Zata|3 clients in Mississippi include candidates seeking federal, state and local elections. Brad Chism is the partner in charge of this project for Zata|3. The company website is www.zata3.com.
For more information, contact:
Pamela Shaw This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it 601.316.0176.
Brad Chism This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it 202.386.6024
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Are Mississippi's best days ahead or behind us? |
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Values |
|
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Q1 -BestDays |
# |
% |
|
1 Best days are ahead of us |
310 |
62% |
|
2 Best days are behind us |
90 |
18% |
|
3 Unsure |
100 |
20% |
|
Grand Total |
500 |
100% |
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Do you expect your financial situation to be better or worse a year from now? |
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|
Values |
|
|
Q2 -Financial |
# |
% |
|
1 Better |
318 |
64% |
|
2 Worse |
99 |
20% |
|
3 Unsure |
83 |
17% |
|
Grand Total |
500 |
100% |
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Which statement about Barbour's presidential qualifications is closer to your opinion? |
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Values |
|
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Q3-Barbour |
# |
% |
|
1 Not qualified |
316 |
63% |
|
2 Qualified but not voting for him |
115 |
23% |
|
3 Qualified, consider voting for him |
69 |
14% |
|
Grand Total |
500 |
100% |
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Which statement about Barbour's stance on the Southern Heritage society's proposal is closer to your opinion? |
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|
Values |
|
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Q4-Racist |
# |
% |
|
1 Agree with Barbour, shouldn't denounce |
136 |
27% |
|
2 Barbour made mistake, but not racist |
92 |
18% |
|
3 Barbour is a racist |
272 |
54% |
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Grand Total |
500 |
100% |